This Is Why XRP May Need 3 More Years to Reach Its Next Peak: Analyst

XRP technical analyst ChartNerd has said that it could take the Ripple token up to 2029 to hit another cycle high.

This is because the market watcher has identified an average interval of approximately 1,400 days between the token’s previous peaks.

How the 1,400-Day Average Was Built

ChartNerd says he analyzed the peaks of the XRP cycles in 2013, 2018, 2021, and 2025, and found that the average length of time between the highs in consecutive cycles was about 1,400 to 1,440 days. He then applied that duration to this cycle, starting from July 2025, when the token hit a new record, and it took him to around June 2029 as the possible date when the cycle peaks next.

However, the analyst stressed that this is a historical comparison and not a price prediction or a guaranteed timeline. This is important to note, considering there were other intervals between highs that ranged between 1,186 and about 1,500 days, with XRP typically taking three to five years to establish a new cycle peak.

ChartNerd also looked at the token’s longer-term ascending support structure, which he says since 2020 has produced higher lows. The latest bear market has lasted about 488 days, and according to the market watcher, if the broader structure is to stay intact, then that trendline needs to hold.

Another reason for caution is historical drawdowns, with the chartist pointing out that XRP dropped by approximately 95% in 2014 and 96% between 2018 and 2020. In the period between 2021 and 2022, the correction reached around 85%, and looking at the cycle we are in, the decline is at over 71% per CoinGecko. That, in ChartNerd’s opinion, has left room for further correction if those past patterns repeat themselves.

XRP Could Revisit Lower Levels Before a $5-$8 Recovery

At the time of writing, CG data put XRP at just above $1, having dropped about 4% in 24 hours and well over 16% in the last week. It is no different on other charts, with the Ripple token down 20% in two weeks and 25% over 30 days, putting it 57% lower than where it was this time last year.

Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO attributed the asset’s weak performance to several factors, including selling by early holders and leveraged liquidations, as well as alleged market manipulation, and he put $1.00 to $1.04 as a zone in which it could stabilize.

On his part, ChartNerd identified the $1.16 to $1.04 region as a short-term target pocket, with a possible double bottom if selling continues.

“If it does get really ugly, just be prepared for a sweep lower,” he cautioned.

On the other hand, he sees Fibonacci extension targets for the longer term between $5 and $8. However, he says there’s one thing different about this cycle:

“With institutional ETF demand there are catalysts this cycle that we didn’t have in the past,” he said.

That said, spot XRP ETFs haven’t had the best of times lately, with demand disappearing in four of five days last week and the first two days of this week seeing more than $18 million leaving the funds. This has taken cumulative net flows from a high of $1.81 billion to about $1.79 billion.

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