Is XRP heading towards $1 amid persistent ETF outflows?

Key takeaways

XRP trades near $1.09 on Monday after declining more than 10% last week, with sellers maintaining control of the broader market.

US spot XRP ETFs recorded $529,510 in net outflows last week, ending two consecutive weeks of positive institutional flows.

XRP risks testing the psychological $1 support level as bearish technical indicators persist.

XRP continues to face selling pressure on Monday, trading around $1.097 after losing more than 10% of its value last week.

The cryptocurrency remains firmly in bearish territory as weakening institutional demand, deteriorating derivatives positioning, and unfavorable macroeconomic conditions undermine recovery attempts.

XRP ETF outflows signal cooling institutional demand

Institutional appetite for XRP weakened last week, reversing the positive momentum recorded during the previous two weeks.

According to SoSoValue, US spot XRP ETFs recorded $529,510 in net outflows last week, ending the two consecutive weeks of inflows.

For XRP, the return to negative weekly flows comes at a particularly vulnerable time, with the cryptocurrency already facing substantial technical weakness.

Beyond ETF withdrawals, derivatives market data suggests traders are increasingly positioning for further downside.

According to CoinGlass, XRP’s long-to-short ratio declined to 0.89 on Monday, approaching its lowest level in more than a month.

A ratio below one indicates that short positions outnumber long positions in the measured market, suggesting traders are leaning toward further price declines.

Additional data from CryptoQuant reinforces this bearish outlook. The analytics platform’s market summary shows large whale orders across XRP’s spot and futures markets, accompanied by persistent sell-side dominance.

This combination suggests that larger market participants remain active while selling pressure continues to outweigh buying demand.

CryptoQuant also identifies heating conditions in the spot market, indicating heightened trading activity during the ongoing correction.

Macroeconomic developments are creating additional challenges for XRP as investors reassess the outlook for US monetary policy.

Stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data released last week reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain restrictive interest rates for longer or introduce another rate increase.

According to CME FedWatch figures, traders are pricing in approximately a 78.7% probability of a December interest rate hike, compared with 72.8% before the employment report.

XRP price forecast: Bears target the psychological $1 support

XRP’s technical outlook remains bearish as the cryptocurrency trades well below its major moving averages.

At the time of writing on Monday, XRP changes hands near $1.097, following a sharp weekly decline that has left buyers struggling to regain control.

The cryptocurrency remains below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are clustered between $1.302 and $1.360.

This creates a significant resistance zone, suggesting that any meaningful recovery could encounter substantial selling pressure.

Momentum indicators also point to continued weakness. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 26, placing XRP firmly in oversold territory.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains negative, reinforcing the prevailing bearish momentum.

With XRP trading near recent lows, sellers could attempt another push toward the psychological $1 support level.

A decisive breakdown below this threshold would represent a significant technical setback and could encourage further selling, although additional support levels would need to be established.

Despite the prevailing bearish conditions, XRP could stage a temporary rebound if buyers capitalize on oversold momentum readings.

The first important resistance level stands at $1.160, which bulls must reclaim to establish an initial recovery.

A sustained move above this barrier could open the door for a broader advance toward $1.300, where stronger selling interest may emerge.

Beyond this level, XRP faces additional resistance from the 50-day EMA at $1.302 and the 100-day EMA at $1.307.

The 200-day EMA at $1.360 represents another major hurdle that buyers would need to overcome before the broader technical outlook begins to improve.

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